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Study of Extreme Daily Rainfall Using GPD Model

J. Deguenon, A. Barbulescu

Abstract


The study of extreme events is of maximum importance for the prediction of meteorological phenomena, as rainfalls. Therefore, in this article we present the analysis made for two daily rainfall series, collected at Sulina and Tulcea meteorological stations from Dobrudja, a region situated in the South - East of Romania. A peak over threshold method from the extreme value theory was used to model daily rainfall above a given threshold. Generalized Pareto distribution was fitted to the tail of the distribution rainfall in the period of 1961-2005. This model has been chosen since the the specification tests for other models considered, as Weibull, GEV and Gumbel (usually used to model the extremes in meteorological time series) fail

Keywords


Extreme values, Maximum Likelihood, Generalized Pareto Distribution.

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