Developing a Forecast Model to Estimate Instantaneous Tropospheric Ozone based on Meteorological Parameters.

Abstract

Several published studies have pointed out that ground level ozone at northern parts of Jordan frequently exhibits higher values that exceed WHO recommended standards during hot sunny days. Consequently, there is a real need to develop an early cautionary system that can be used to warn local publics of any forecasted ozone violations, which enables them to take necessary precautions. One way to do so is through developing an ozone-forecast model based on readily and routinely measured meteorological parameters. Thus, this paper aims to develop a forecast model that predicts instantaneous ozone concentration at Zarqa based on air temperature using linear regression model. The data was obtained through the air quality monitoring station which is operated by the department of water management and environment inside the campus of the Hashemite University for the period of two years from 1st of January 2012 to 30th of December 2013. Statistical analysis revealed that ozone levels have exceeded the Jordanian Ambient Air Quality Standard (JAAQS) in Zarqa. Correlations between measured ozone concentration and meteorological parameters including temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and wind direction are investigated. It is found that air temperature correlate well with ozone concentration, and thereby a regression formula that calculates ozone based on air temperature is retrieved. According to classification of Air quality index (AQI) ,the ozone concentration in Zarqa classified as unhealthy.