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Analysis of Weekly Rainfall using Percentile Bootstrap Approach

H. P. T. N. Silva, T. S. G. Peiris


Analysis of pattern of weekly rainfall would enhance the management of water resource and capability to deal with water related issues, which enable us to mitigate the impact of climate change. This study evaluates the weekly rainfall variability during the South West Monsoon (SWM) and the Second Inter Monsoon (SIM) in the context of confidence intervals. The confidence intervals of rainfall quantiles were made using percentile bootstrap approach. Daily rainfall data from 1960 to 2015 of Colombo in Sri Lanka were used for this study. The Wald Wolfowiz test was used for the test of independence of weekly data series. It is noted that the 82% of the weeks pertaining to SWM marked more than 100% coefficient of variation result in the high fluctuations in weekly rainfall. Conversely, there is much lower variation in weekly rainfall in SIM than SWM. Based on the 95% confidence intervals for percentiles, the weeks 18-23 and 38-39 which belong to SWM and the weeks 41- 45 which pertaining to SIM showed not only high rainfall, but also high rainfall variation result cause to the high possibility to form extreme rainfall events.


Weekly Rainfall, Rainfall Quantiles, Confidence Intervals, Colombo, Bootstrap(Algeria).

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