Future runoff under land use and climate changes in the Ubolratana Basin, Thailand
The runoff characteristic within a watershed area is affected by rainfall and land use. Therefore, climate and land use changes in the upper area of the reservoir will directly impact the amount of runoff into the reservoir. This study aims to estimate future runoff, under the impact of climate and land use changes, into the Ubolratana Reservoir, Thailand, during the period 2015-2064. The simulated climate scenarios used data from PRECIS RCM with A2 and B2 scenarios. The future land use was created using a CA Markov model. Future runoff was generated using a SWAT model. The result found that the average precipitation and temperatures were increased under both emission scenarios: A2 and B2. The largest land use changes showed an expansion of the Para rubber tree and sugarcane, while paddy field and forest areas were decreased. The average future runoff into the reservoir under both scenarios was increased in comparison with the observed data during the baseline year. However, the average future runoff of the B2 scenario was higher than the A2 scenario.
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