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Finding Appropriate Smoothing Constant for Demand Forecasting of Private Cars in Dhaka City

Nandita Barman, Nayan Dhali, M.Babul Hasan

Abstract



Bangladesh is a developing country. Among lots of problem traffic jam is the most concern problem in Dhaka city. Traffic jam occurs for many reasons such as narrow road size, lack of proper parking facilities, unplanned building construction etc. But most significant reason for occurring traffic jam in Dhaka city is plying of huge number of private cars in the road. Number of private cars is increasing day by day which is an alarming issue. Bangladesh Road Transport Authority used only qualitative method to predict the future demand of motor vehicle. Finding an appropriate quantitative forecasting method for demand forecasting of private car in Dhaka city is the objective of this study. This study tries to find out an efficient forecasting technique by finding appropriate smoothing constant in Holt-Winter`s Exponential Smoothing method for forecasting the demand of private car in Dhaka city. The accurateness is measured by using MAD, MAPE. Empirical results from the study indicate that the Holt-Winter`s Multiplicative Method as the most fittingpredicting method for the data studied.

Keywords


Forecast,Holt-Winter`s Method, Smoothing Constant, Mean Absolute Deviation, Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

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