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Forecasting Monthly Average Temperature of Some Selected Stations from the Northern Part of Bangladesh by ARIMA Model

M. M. Hossain

Abstract



The global temperature is increasing day by day. It is mostly because of the Greenhouse effect, using fossil fuels and others. It is potentially impacting on human population and another organism of the environment. The environment of Bangladesh, as well as the climatic conditions all over the world, are wildly affected due to increasing temperature. This paper attempts to identify the most appropriate Time Series model for the monthly average temperature of the selected places and make forecasting with this model. For this study, the monthly average temperature data is collected between the period from January 1972 and December 2017 for Rangpur, Rajshahi and Bogra station. However, for the Dinajpur the study period is January 1981 to December 2017 since the previous data are unavailability. The final model is selected by using well-established model selection criteria like AIC, BIC, MASE, RMSE and so on. We have found the seasonal ARIMA model like , , and for Rangpur, Rajshahi, Dinajpur and Bogra stations respectively give the best fit. It is assumed that our forecasted monthly average temperature data can help the meteorologist and the decisionmakers to establish strategies, priorities and proper use of natural components.

Keywords


Temperature; Box-Jenkin’s Methodology; Model Selection; Bangladesh.

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