Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Forecasting Rice Production in Jessore, Dinajpur and Kushtia Districts of Bangladesh by Time Series Model

M. A. Rahman, M. M. Hossain

Abstract



The economy of Bangladesh mainly depends on agriculture in which rice is the leading crop. Rice is the principal food, imitated in the high per capita rice consumption in this country. Most of the people in Bangladesh fulfill the nutritional demand by rice. Over its long history, rice production of Bangladesh has gradually changed in terms of yield potentials, cultivations techniques, and cropping patterns. Despite the pressure from over-population, the country has reached self-sufficiency in rice production. Thus, this paper attempts to identify the appropriate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model that is used to forecast the production of rice in Jessore, Dinajpur and Kushtia districts. In this paper, model for both Jessore and Dinajpur and model for Kushtia is found to be suitable for forecasting the rice production also the test result indicating that the errors of the selected models are not auto-correlated as well as follows the normal distribution. Finally, these models are used to forecast the rice production of the selected districts for the upcoming 20 years which help the decision makers to establish the rice production management.

Keywords


Rice production, Box- Jenkins methodology, Ljung- Box, Jarque-Berra Test .

Full Text:

PDF


Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.