Forecasting Rice Production in Jessore, Dinajpur and Kushtia Districts of Bangladesh by Time Series Model

Abstract

The economy of Bangladesh mainly depends on agriculture in which rice is the leading crop. Rice is the principal food, imitated in the high per capita rice consumption in this country. Most of the people in Bangladesh fulfill the nutritional demand by rice. Over its long history, rice production of Bangladesh has gradually changed in terms of yield potentials, cultivations techniques, and cropping patterns. Despite the pressure from over-population, the country has reached self-sufficiency in rice production. Thus, this paper attempts to identify the appropriate ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model that is used to forecast the production of rice in Jessore, Dinajpur and Kushtia districts. In this paper, model for both Jessore and Dinajpur and model for Kushtia is found to be suitable for forecasting the rice production also the test result indicating that the errors of the selected models are not auto-correlated as well as follows the normal distribution. Finally, these models are used to forecast the rice production of the selected districts for the upcoming 20 years which help the decision makers to establish the rice production management.