From the Logistic Model to the SIR Model for an Epidemic: Example from the 2003 SARS Epidemic in Hong Kong
In this article we use spreadsheet technology to construct a distribution function (logistic) for the 2003 Hong Kong severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic. From the distribution function, we deduce an equivalent density function which predicts the daily reported cases for the epidemic. This density function is used as the infection function in the SIR modeling for the epidemic. There was no significant difference (p-value= 0.192) between the mean number of the actual daily reported cases of the disease, and the mean number of predicted daily cases of the disease using the density function. We calculate an infection rate for the SIR model and estimate the basic reproductive number (R_o=2.88) for the epidemic; this value is within the range 2 - 4 reported by other studies on the Hong Kong SARS. The approach used, provides a modeling example using spreadsheet technology that is available to teachers and the high school students they teach.
Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:
We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information. Also: DOI is paid service which provided by a third party. We never mentioned that we go for this for our any journal. However, journal have no objection if author go directly for this paid DOI service.