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The Effect of Assimilation of Satellite and Regular Meteorological Data for the Prediction of a Well-Marked Low-Pressure Over Arabian Sea Using a Mesoscale Model
Abstract
A well-marked low-pressure system was found over the northern parts of Arabian Sea, India during July 27 2003. The low pressure stayed during 27-29 July and became less marked on 30 July 2003. The above low-pressure system caused copious rainfall over the west coast and adjoining states of India. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of ingestion and assimilation of satellite and conventional meteorological data on the prediction of the well-marked low- pressure system, which formed in the Arabian Sea during July 2003. Two sets of numerical experiments are designed in this study. While the first set utilizes NCEP reanalysis (for the initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions) only in the MM5 simulation, the second set utilized the satellite (MODIS and QuikSCAT) and conventional meteorological upper air (radiosondse/rawinsonde) and surface data to provide an improved analysis. The results of the two sets of simulation are compared with one another as well as with the analysis. The results show that the simulation with FDDA reproduces the large-scale structure of the low-pressure system as manifest in the analysis. The FDDA run also simulates stronger south westerlies in the lower troposphere and a relatively better developed cyclonic circulation. Higher spatial correlation and lower rms errors of sea level pressure characterize the FDDA run.
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