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On the Dynamical Extended Range Predictability of Active/Break Spells of the Indian Summer Monsoon: Sensitivity to Atmospheric Initial Conditions

P. Krishnan, Suchithra Sundaram

Abstract


Numerical simulation experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) and diagnostic analysis of observed data products (reanalysis and reforecast data) are conducted in order to understand the dynamical predictability of the active- break monsoon spells over the Indian summer monsoon region. In particular, the dependence of the potential predictability of the model forecasts to atmospheric initial states during strong and weak monsoon conditions is examined. For this purpose, a series of twin ensemble simulation experiments were performed starting from strong
monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) initial conditions for a 6-year (2000-2005) period.

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