Regression Model to Monitor HIV/AIDS Control from Namibia Baseline Data

Verdiana Grace Masanja, Lischen Haoses-Gorases, Philbert Mugabo


The paper examines the relationship between self protection using condoms on one hand and sexual behaviour change on the other hand as controlling factors that can influence HIV/AIDS using data from a baseline survey conducted in Keetmanshoop and Ondangwa districts in Namibia. Frequency of condom utilization is used as a proxy for self protection while the frequency of a person having sexual intercourse in a given period is used as proxy for sexual behaviour change.

Regression models formed the methodological basis for this study. Findings revealed that the factors, as they have been chosen from the data are sufficient to characterize self protection by using condom in truck drivers, as well as in youth combined but they are not sufficient to characterize sex workers’ frequency of condom use. Also the findings revealed that the controlled factors are sufficient to characterize the sexual behaviour change of sex workers and youth combined but not sufficient for truck drivers.

Based on the model findings, we can advise implementers of HIV/AIDS control programmes in those districts that the following factors increase the frequency of utilization of condoms: (i) availability of condoms in the vicinity (home and place of work), (ii) voluntarily testing of HIV, (iii) convincing the youth groups that to buy condoms is not a problem and (iv) advertising condoms on the TV and other media. Factors that strongly affect negatively the use of condom and sexual behaviour change are (i) taking alcohol,(ii) intravenous drug use and (iii) cultural practices.


Modelling HIV/AIDS control methods, regression models, frequency of condom use, sexual behaviour change.

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