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Precipitation Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Vamei over equatorial Southeast Asia

Mastura Mahmud, T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar


The precipitation features of a rare tropical cyclone that occurred in the equatorial Southeast Asia were successfully simulated by the Florida State University (FSU) Global and Nested Regional Spectral Models. The control nonlinear mode initialization runs for both models revealed the presence of a cyclonic vortex near the southern tip of Peninsular Malaysia without invoking any bogusing. Two variants of the FSU model that utilized different cumulus parameterization schemes, specifically the Arakawa-Schubert and the modified Kuo, were selected to investigate the sensitivity of precipitation simulations for this tropical cyclone. It is found that the modified Kuo cumulus parameterization scheme predicted more intense precipitation than the Arakawa-Schubert scheme. Statistical verification showed that the latter scheme presented more credible precipitation results. A more realistic area-averaged rainfall rate distribution closer to the observed rainfall compared to the control runs was produced when physical initialization of observed rain rates was invoked for both cumulus schemes. Further improvement on the placement and intensities of the predicted precipitation was achieved from the higher resolution regional model.


global and regional spectral models, equatorial Southeast Asia, tropical cyclone, precipitation prediction

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