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An Econometric Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism Flows: An empirical Evidence from the Region of Tuscany, Italy

Paulo A.L.D. Nunes, Mattia Cai, Roberto Ferrise, Marco Moriondo, Bindi Marco


This paper contributes to the study of climate change impacts on tourism by exploring how flows of visitors to Tuscany, which counts for more than 45 million of presences a year. Our estimation results show that under the A1B IPCC scenario, by 2050 we shall be assisting to a decrease in the annual tourism flows to Tuscany between 13.2% and 16.5%, with a maximum ranging up to 22% in the eastern hilly areas of Tuscany and the south of the region. This is equivalent to a loss of 2.9 million US dollars today, which corresponds to 6.2% of the total expenditures in Italy by arrivals. We can interpret these results has signaling the need to study alternative mitigation and adaptation policies and this way reduce such potential welfare loss to the region of Tuscany.


Domestic tourists flows, international tourists flows, Tuscany, climate change, spatial econometric model, demand elasticity.

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