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Economic Crisis Modeling: Data Based Approach to Generalize Effect of A Crisis

Anuj Maurya, Chaitali Bansal, Shivani Singh, Sushmita

Abstract


The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to study an economy during an economic crisis with the use of available data of economic factors. Study of three major crisis(Subprime crisis, Eurozone crisis and Asian crisis) is done to recognize patterns in various countries during crisis and statistically significant factors have been chosen accordingly to build a model with data set of more than 30 countries. Data is manipulated to bring out the exact effect of a crisis in an economy and a new dataset is created with additional variable ratings(1- Highly Affected by crisis, 2- Mildly Affected by crisis,3-Less or Not Affected by crisis). Model finally predicts the rating of any country by feeding in data regarding economic factors.

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