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Environmental Intensity in Pakistan: A Projection for Period 2016-2030

H. Yousaf, M. Ahmed, K. Khan


This study examines the trend in economic development, energy consumption, CO2 emissions and ecological footprint, and systematically studies the projection of environmental intensity in Pakistan. To evaluate the trend, the study uses a sample period of 1980-2012, while the environmental intensity projection is undertaken for period 2016-2030 by using the Grey (1,1) model. The rational of the study is that Pakistan as a member of the United Nations (UN) has pleded to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which include the reduction of CO2 emission to a sustainable level. The result of the study demonstrates that Pakitan’s GDP Per Capita shows an increasing trend alongwith energy consumption. The carbon and ecological footprint intensity declines and the annual rates of decline are respectively 8.26% and 8.01%, where the average annual growth rate of GDP is 9.95%, which therefore shows that the impact of economic output on environment is reducing year by year. The projection of environmental intensity based on Grey (1,1) model shows that further incease in economic growth, reduction in CO2 emissions and material resource consumption will reduce Pakistan’s environmental intensity. The study shows that by focusing on renewable energy projects and following China carbon trading markets will achieve upto 20% reduction in carbon emissions and environmental intensity in Pakistan.


Environmental Intensity, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, Ecological Footprint

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