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Extreme Value Analysis of Typhoon Damages in the Philippines

J. A. Limpoco, A. Capili

Abstract



Typhoons in the Philippines are frequent, with around 20 typhoons visiting the country every year. These typhoons are sometimes destructive, leaving the country in distress. Thus, it is important to investigate the damages caused by typhoons. This study aims to utilize the Extreme Value Analysis, specifically the Peaks Over Threshold approach, to model the damages brought about by typhoons.
In this study, the data on estimated total typhoon damages, as well as damages specific to agriculture, infrastructures, and private properties were analyzed. The data was taken from the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council – Office of Civil Defense (NDRRMC-OCD). Under the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) was used as a model for typhoon damages. The return levels were calculated for each type of damage. To ensure the goodness of fit, the GPD was subjected to a bootstrap procedure.
The results showed that the GPD is a good fit for the typhoon damages in agriculture, private properties, and total damages. However, the distribution may not be a good fit for the infrastructure dataset.

Keywords


Typhoon damages, extreme value analysis, generalized pareto distribution, peaks over threshold approach.

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