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Forecasting of Handled Cargo in Aqaba Port in 2030

Reda Albotoush, S. AL Wadi, Mohammad Rasheed, Ahmad Abu Hilal

Abstract



The main goal of this unprecedented study was forecasting handled cargo in Aqaba port in 2030. The results of forecasting were built on a data collected over 64 years period'. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) revealed a forecasted amount of 36M tons in 2030 (with a 95 % high confidence level of 56M tons). This jump from 27.7M tons in 2014 to 36M tons in 2030 is an acceptable surge. However, if looking at the high confidence level 95%, the amount is 56M tons, which is almost double the number of 2014. The maximum amount of cargo that can be handled in the port is around 30M tons. Therefore, this finding has raised many important issues: Whether, Aqaba port will have the ability to handle the forecasted amount of cargo? If not, what are the possible alternatives? If yes, what is the plan on the ground?

Keywords


Forecasting, Transportation Economics, Time series data.

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