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The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors and Economic Cycles on the Cost of Housing

M. Ermilova, Y. Finogenova

Abstract



The essential aspects that need to be analysed in the process of pricing in the Russian housing market are: regional characteristics and the specifics of macroeconomic risks’ impact.
Along with Russia the article analyzes the international markets (with the different economic conditions: Belarus, Australia, Thailand) to identify the relationships between cost per square meter of housing and the different macroeconomic indicators for the period of last ten years.
It was concluded that the influence of such factors as inflation, the oil price, the degree of domestic crediting, the consumer price index, GDP and changes in the exchange rate have mixed effect on the economy of the investigated countries In addition, if it is possible to allocate some common impacts of the mentioned above factors on the markets of Belarus and Australia, such countries as Thailand and Russia have their own trends. Moreover, Russia demonstrates stronger effects of selected factors in crisis periods.
Presented data indicate that the minimum impact on the cost of housing have such factors as exchange rates volatility (especially in the post-crisis periods, but with the exception of Russia) and inflation (with the exception of Belarus).

Keywords


housing market, pricing, investment, the correlation model, factor analysis, housing market risks.

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