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Study of Earthquake Forecast through Hazard Rate Analysis

N. Sunusi, S. Darwis, W. Triyoso, I.W. Mangku

Abstract


Earthquake forecast is defined as the probability that at least one event takes place in the future interval. Until now, study of earthquake forecast is still a challenge problem. One of the central issues in earthquake forecast is estimating earthquake hazard rate. The standard approach in such estimation is to use the likelihood of point processes. This paper propose a new approach named single decrement method, where the basic data are entry time, exit time, and number of occurrences. Our previous result shows that a single decrement approach is an alternative approach that can be used to estimate the earthquake
hazard rate. Using a parametric hazard rate model, we developed an earthquake occurrence forecast. As an illustration, the data taken from an earthquake catalogue will be considered. The result is that the probability that at least one event takes place in the future interval in one region has increase as a function of elapsed time.

Keywords


hazard rate, single decrement, earthquake forecast.

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