The Weibull Model and Its Parameter Estimation of the Inter-occurrence Times for Earthquakes Around Thailand

S. Wasinrat, P. Pairojn


This paper uses the Weibull model to investigate the inter-occurrence times of earthquakes in the area surrounding Thailand. The inter-occurrence times were extrapolated from earthquake data provided by the Seismological Bureau of the Thai Meteorological Department. The data covers a region spanning 2o - 25o N latitude and 92o - 110o E longitude. It includes 3,609 seismic events between January 2007 and April 2016. The earthquakes are divided into four categories based on magnitude (m): minor, light, moderate, and strong. The results were then compared using the Weibull inter-occurrence time model with a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, and the Bayesian estimation (BE) method. The results show that the Weibull model was appropriate for analyzing the inter-occurrence times of light, moderate and strong earthquakes. The study also found that the MLE method and the BE method gave similar results for minor, light and moderate earthquakes. When it came to analyzing strong earthquakes, the BE method gave better results than the MLE method.


Inter-occurrence time, Earthquakes, Bayesian Inference, Statistical model, Weibull distribution.

Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.