The Weibull Model and Its Parameter Estimation of the Inter-occurrence Times for Earthquakes Around Thailand

S. Wasinrat, P. Pairojn

Abstract



This paper uses the Weibull model to investigate the inter-occurrence times of earthquakes in the area surrounding Thailand. The inter-occurrence times were extrapolated from earthquake data provided by the Seismological Bureau of the Thai Meteorological Department. The data covers a region spanning 2o - 25o N latitude and 92o - 110o E longitude. It includes 3,609 seismic events between January 2007 and April 2016. The earthquakes are divided into four categories based on magnitude (m): minor, light, moderate, and strong. The results were then compared using the Weibull inter-occurrence time model with a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method, and the Bayesian estimation (BE) method. The results show that the Weibull model was appropriate for analyzing the inter-occurrence times of light, moderate and strong earthquakes. The study also found that the MLE method and the BE method gave similar results for minor, light and moderate earthquakes. When it came to analyzing strong earthquakes, the BE method gave better results than the MLE method.

Keywords


Inter-occurrence time, Earthquakes, Bayesian Inference, Statistical model, Weibull distribution.



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