Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Grey Forecasting Model to Forecast the Water Shortage Risk

Fanyong Meng, Jisong Wu

Abstract


Grey forecasting model has been developed by a new background value formula and boundary correction methods. The study indicates that grey forecasting model for evaluating water shortage risk during 2006-2011 in Beijing is more effective when compared with the traditional model. The water shortage risk in the next few years in Beijing is forecasted at medium risk by using the improved grey forecasting model. It means that the adoption of measures for effective risk management of water resources is an urgent task. Demand-oriented measures are proposed to solve the problem of water shortage risk in Beijing.

Keywords


grey system, grey forecasting model, GM (1, 1), water shortage risk, forecast.

Full Text:

PDF


Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information. Also: DOI is paid service which provided by a third party. We never mentioned that we go for this for our any journal. However, journal have no objection if author go directly for this paid DOI service.