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Growth Trend and Forecasting of Tasar Raw Silk Production in India

Suresh Rai, R.K. Dwivedi

Abstract



The present study attempts to analyze the growth trend and future forecast of tasar raw silk production for the period 1951-52 to 2016-17 collected from Statistical Biennials and Annual Reports published by Central Silk Board Govt. of India. Data were analyzed using different parametric growth models and most suited models were selected on the basis of adjusted R . Further, the study attempts to forecast the future production behavior using Exponential smoothing models. The best fitted models were selected with lowest MAPE and BIC criteria, Maximum R2 and non-significant Ljung-Box statistics. After processing data through Expert modeler in SPSS package, Holt’s Linear Exponential model was selected for future forecast of raw silk production. The forecast of tasar silk production for the year 2017-18, 2020-21 and 2026-27 would be about 3516 MT, 4394 MT and 6152 MT with increasing trend. The finding of this study will be helpful for government policy makers, exporters, producers and importing countries.

Keywords


Exponential model, Forecasting, Growth Trend, Production, Raw Silk, Tasar

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