Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Maritime Weather Prediction Using Fuzzy Logic in Java Sea for Shipping Feasibility

Aulia S. Aisjah, Syamsul Arifin

Abstract


Fuzzy logic has mostly been used in different kind of field either in taking decision or control system and forecasting. Fuzzy logic is one that can represent a complex situation into a simple form in a language that is easily caught by humans. Similarly, fuzzy logic can represent the nature of weather to be easily understood by ordinary people as the result of weather forecasting based on meteorological data. In this study, some of the statistical methods were used for weather forecasting, i.e. Auto Regressive (AR), Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and some improvement of shortcomings of these traditional methods. The numbers of historical data needed in weather forecasting are not small to avoid low prediction accuracy results in a complex condition. This paper describes the strategy in maritime weather forecasting by means of fuzzy logic. Case studies were conducted in the Java Sea to determine the shipping feasibility in cruise lines Surabaya- Banjarmasin as two major ports that connect Java and Kalimantan (Borneo) island. The results show that the level of prediction accuracy is 86.64% of the Java Sea and prediction accuracy decrease for the next 24 hours. Predictors can demonstrate the ability to detect anomalous high sea waves in the waters of the Java Sea at three locations between Surabaya waters and Banjarmasin waters. This prediction results are proven to be able to determine the shipping feasibility.

Keywords


Fuzzy, feasibility, forecast, Java Sea, high wave, shipping, weather.

Full Text:

PDF


Disclaimer/Regarding indexing issue:

We have provided the online access of all issues and papers to the indexing agencies (as given on journal web site). It’s depend on indexing agencies when, how and what manner they can index or not. Hence, we like to inform that on the basis of earlier indexing, we can’t predict the today or future indexing policy of third party (i.e. indexing agencies) as they have right to discontinue any journal at any time without prior information to the journal. So, please neither sends any question nor expects any answer from us on the behalf of third party i.e. indexing agencies.Hence, we will not issue any certificate or letter for indexing issue. Our role is just to provide the online access to them. So we do properly this and one can visit indexing agencies website to get the authentic information.

thentic information.