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Application of ARMA Models in Forecasting Electricity Production With Box-Jenkins Method(Case of Algeria)

Hamza Daoudi

Abstract



This paper deals with a major issue in chronological series, It is the prediction process a short-term phenomenon, National Society of Electricity and Gas (SO.N.EL.GAZ) in Algeria is Consider the critical importance to provide well for successful production planning strategy, We have tried to anticipate national electricity production by a method widely used in forecasting, we based on monthly data electricity production January 2001 to December 2010. The results of this paper show that there is no true difference in the predicted values
and the values taken from Society.


Keywords


Forecasting, Stationary, ARMA, AR, MA, Box-Jenkins.

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