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Time-Series Modeling of the Impact of Suicide Attacks on Tourism to Israel

Basel A. Saleh

Abstract


The paper develops a theoretical and a time-series model to quantify the dynamic impact of suicide attacks on tourism to Israel. The immediate impact of the intifada was estimated using monthly data on the number of tourist arrivals to Israel from 1990 to 2003. The intervention-model results indicate that tourist arrivals to Israel dropped by 33 percent after the onset of the most recent Israeli-Palestinian hostilities. As for suicide attacks, the transfer function method indicates that a suicide attack in Israel reduced tourist arrivals to Israel in the following month by 4.3 percent and the impact would continue in the following months but at a smaller rate.

Keywords


Israel, suicide attacks, Tourism, Transfer-Function model

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